I have to admit that I missed the actual day in July, but then I’m a little late in remembering most birthdays now.  As you get older you work to forget all the extra candles on the cake.  It’s is hard to forget the Big Mouse in our backyard and one that I first saw when it opened in 1955.  I started to work there in 1966 and supported my way through college, and then grad school by working there.  I still have many close friends so many years later.

The single biggest thing I thank Disneyland for is that is where I met the LRHG who became my wife, and mother of my two buy DN1 and DN2.  It is now 37 years later, and still thankful for the day I first met her in the Inbetween – the employee cafeteria.

What a great place to work, with so many memories – sorry I missed your birthday!

In the Viewpoint section of Bloomberg / Businessweek in a post titled “The End of Outsourcing (As We Know It)” Arjun Sethi and Oliver Aries highlight the major changes taking place in outsourcing.  It seems that they are moving to the Clouds – cloud computing that is.  With companies still ruthlessly seeking new economies of scale to reduce costs that the cloud is where the trend is now heading.  First it was to India, and then other offshore locations where labor was cheap and local moguls build large infrastructures to handle the complex transactions at a fraction of the cost of in the U.S.

They follow the trends of the last several decades as we computerized everything, marched from mainframes to PC’s, and from internal staff to the extensive use of consultants – mainly the big firms.  Costs shifted, but the shift continues.

Now the trend is to cloud computing and this will impact both the large offshore firms, mainly in India, and the large consultancies like Accenture.  Who will benefit – surprise, it will be Google and Amazon who have both built the right kinds of infrastructure, systems and software to lead us down the next path.  Even Microsoft could be a winner if they can further develop their own version of software on demand, cloud style, and make it a wide spread winner.  They could certainly use one.

Off now to the closet to fetch my raincoat – I hear the clouds are coming my way.

I was beginning to take it personally.  Truth be told, my kids don’t return my calls, or my wife’s for that matter.  We know that both of our boys are very busy, and always mult-tasking so talking on the phone was a bit of a chore to begin with.  When my wife, The Little Red Headed Girl (LRHG) asked boy #2 why he didn’t return her call – he stated , with total sincerity, “you didn’t ask a question!”  We always ask questions now, usually lot of them.

Two recent articles affirm what we have been feeling on both a personal and professional realm – people don’t like to talk on the phone, and prefer to email or text instead.  2^nd truth be told, we email, but we don’t text.  I can since I have a DroidX, my wife can’t since she has a ‘plain’ phone, no extras, please.

Last week, Ian Shapira in The Washington Post in the article “Texting Generation Doesn’t Share Boomers’ Taste for Talk” hit the nail on the head.  Gen X & Y now see phones as intrusive and time wasters and prefer to use email and texting.  I first discovered this in 2007 when I headed a direct marketing company in Oakland.  Several staff members convinced me that email was more efficient, and it was in processing orders.  The let down came when problems arose and couldn’t be quickly solved with emails – then I had to get involved and make the calls.  Voice can quickly resolve issues, and also goes a long way in really building 2-way communications.

Today in an online article from ABC News by Ki Mae Heussner titled “Phone Fatigue: Voice Calls on the Decline,” she noted that cellular and landline minutes are declining.  People just aren’t making as many calls.  This has been a growing trend for some time and we are starting to see some research as well that this habit of younger adults may now be influencing the behavior of older adults.  It has for me, but my first reaction is still to reach for the phone, not the keyboard, when I want to talk with someone.

Next week I am working with a new client on exactly this issue – how to effectively blend channels of communication – a generational divide has caused some problems and I am going in to ‘help.’  Maybe my kids will call back – nah, I’ll just email them and save the headache.

Two great, and very timely, articles out recently that I wanted to comment on.  They hit very close to home to many of my clients who are trying to forge new strategies for the current economic downturn.  Many feel that we are starting to see some up ticks and bright spots in both consumer and commercial business.  Other still have their sad hats on.  Today, the word is mostly keep you sad hats on – it’s looks like a long slog back.

In Business Week, The New Abnormal, a cover story by Devin Leonard – we get a picture of America as a place where we are broke and depressed.  We are also still drinking our lattes and buying iPads and iPhones like hot bread at a bakery.  What gives?

What gives is that our current economic downturn is unlike any other I have experienced over the last 40 years.  We have gotten hooked on our new ‘tools’ (iPhones and such) and are not likely to give them up; in fact, we need to have the newest and fastest.  At the same time many are cutting back and scaling down on items like toothpaste, shampoo and other sundries that make us feel like we are making ‘sacrifices.’  As Leonard states it – “There it is: gloom, muted optimism, and wild abandon.”  I see it in my friends and business associates, and I see it in myself.

The problem is that our economy is based on consumption, and one of the places we are cutting back is our overall spending rate.  In the past we were exhorted to go shopping to help the economy – that’s not working now, and individuals and businesses alike are not spending –they are actually saving.  Good for them in the long term, but bad for us in the short term.

In The New Times, The Growth Imperative by columnist David Brooks – we have another journalistic home run.  Brooks outlines many of the same facts.  “Consumers are overindebted, and it will take years of curtailed spending before households are back on a sustainable path.  Federal and state governments also will have to pull back.  Labor markets were ill before the recession and are worse now.”  As I said earlier – nothing like I’ve seen before.  As an ad man my job was to get people spending – not so easy now.

Brooks highlights some approaches that could lead us out of things – from both the left and the right.  A number of great arguments have been offered on both sides.  What I focused on is that there is no easy way out.  As a people we tend to look for the easy way, one we can sell to the most people.  The problem is that people aren’t buying now – they are sad, angry, and yes, schizophrenic.  When this happens people do nothing – and that is what we have now, and will until the time we get our courage back.  A turn around is not just around the corner.  The long slog is on – plan to use it to your benefit.  When it rains sell raincoats.

I’m not a pessimistic guy, but I have learned to read the ‘tea leaves.’  Plan now for the long term solutions that will really have an impact on the future of your business and your career.  Build your infrastructure and get ready for good times that will inevitably come down the road.  Housing has been a strong engine where I live and news just came out the a large home builder was buying land – and planned to build 4 years from now.  Now that’s a smart move.  Check out both of the articles I quoted – both have great insights that you can use today to build your plans for tomorrow.