Monthly Archives: December 2010

The Ghosts of Christmas Past – Gone but Not Forgotten

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I love this time of the year, the Christmas lights, the food and the fire in the fireplace.  Holidays in Southern California have their own timeline, and this year for extra cheer we have the deluge of the century bearing down on us.  Time to make merry and stay dry, and time for another log on the fire.

Another reason I look forward at this time are all of the lists of things past and things future.  I enjoy the prognostications of what is to come, and what we saw.  In this climate both real and economic it is exciting to see some glimmer of good news on the horizon.  Good news, even potential good news brings positive actions, and that is what we need.  The forecasts are looking up and I rejoice at their prospect, but then I am chastened by forecasts past that have not brought the results foretold.  Pardon the language, but I’m also watching ‘A Christmas Carol’ to get myself in the mood.

OK, this year is the resolution to save all of the forecasts in a folder and then review them at the end of the year.  Just like Ebeneezer at his counting table I will keep tally of who was naughty and who was nice, well in his honor, just who was naughty.

To get myself in the mood I read today’s list “You’re Out: 20 Things That Became Obsolete this Decade.” Now I feel old, and then contemplate just how fast things come and go.  It seems like just yesterday for many of these items.  Here’s a quick recap of those things that will not be missed – OK, some of them will be missed:

  1. VCRs & VHS Taps
  2. Travel Agents
  3. The Separation between Work and Personal Life
  4. Forgetting
  5. Bookstores
  6. Watches
  7. Land Line Phones
  8. Maps
  9. Phone Calls
  10. Classifieds in Newspapers
  11. Dial-up Internet
  12. Encyclopedias
  13. CD’s
  14. Phone Sex via 1-900 numbers
  15. Film and film cameras
  16. Yellow Pages and Address Books
  17. Catalogs
  18. Fax Machines
  19. Wires
  20. Hand Written Letters

Now I really feel old.  Time for some liquid Christmas ‘cheer’ to deaden the pain, and to help me forget.  I worked in many of these fields, and there is no going back.    Bah, Humbug!

How Low Can They Go? Newspaper Revenues Down Again

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There were big changes taking place in the advertising field in 2010.  For the first time marketers spent more in online advertising than newspapers.  I have a career than spans both industries and I really feel for my print bretheran.  Total newspaper spending, including both print and online declined to $25.7 billion, a decline of 6.6%.  On the other side of the ledger the US online spend rose 13.9% to $25.8 billion by Dec 31st.  Ouch and ouch.

The big hope for newspapers is that they could make up some of the declines from print in their online and direct marketing offerings.  It hasn’t worked – yet!  Print revenue alone fell to $22.8 billion.  The blended offerings of newspapers are still relevant to their advertisers and readers, but they no longer command the dominant position they rode to glory for so many years.  Yeah, and I was one of those riders for a number of those years.

Why is this not going better for the newspapers?  Print revenues and ads are declining faster than forecasted, and online operations and revenues are running behind and are being trounced by stand-alone online operations, and of course by newer players like Groupon.

With newspaper spending having declined by nearly half since 2006 there seems to be no easy answer.  They still own the local client base – no one refuses to talk to any representative of the local paper.  There is too much at stake, and not a little fear thrown in for good measure.  Newspapers must continue to work that angle to stay relevant in their markets.  There is still a belief in high readership drawing good advertising results.  I have found that those papers that stay top of mind to their readers do a better job for their advertisers as well.  When I increased my ‘news hole’ advertising dollars followed shortly there after.  Try it – it works!

Finding the Off Switch

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The Woz

I admit it…I am a propeller-head and early adopting geek.  I had my first computer in 1980 – an Apple II running VisiCalc and printing on a thermal printer.  The funny thing it was the only computer in my division of Harte-Hanks in Dallas.  Things certainly have changed, but I haven’t – I’m still a nerd at heart.

That is why I loved the article in today’s LA Times about Steve Wozniak – ‘The Woz’ and a personal hero of mine.  I had the good fortune to know Del Yocam who came in at the very beginning to set up the manufacturing for Apple, so following the ‘originals’ is still a passion of mine.

Woz in the article speaks to the issue that we have all become addicted to our computers and gadgets, and it is nearly impossible to turn them off.  I know, there is no off switch in my house, my car or in my life.  Technology and being connected has changed how we live, and it’s not all for the better.  We need to find the off switch, or at least the mute button.  I’m writing this post while I’m helping to build a crib for my new 2 week old granddaughter.  The switch in my head has finally gone off, and this post will end in 60 seconds.

My next post will focus on how you can find your off switch, and why you should – for the sake of your ‘life.’

Mega-Trends for Our Near Future?

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A recent post on BNET/CBS Interactive by Geoffrey James in their Sales Machine blog caught my attention.  At my first reading it brought a laugh, but then I wondered if  he was really serious, and if there was real meaning there – and there was!  The article was entitled “Five Mega-Trends That Will Shape the Next Decade.” The trends were:

#1 – The Great Stupification

#2 – The Porking of America

#3 – The Gilded Age

#4 – Totally Weird Weather

#5 – Endless Religious War

Got your attention? It got mine, and when I re-read the sections I found the insights, some of which I am integrating into my messages to my clients.  Some might find the headers and the approach a little jarring, but there is real truth down below.  Here are a few of the things I gleaned.

#1 – We have so much information available to us today it is hard to digest. Some are facts and much is just opinion, but how to really know the difference, and how many care?  There are too many voices, and too many choices.  We need filters and trusted advisors to help us make sense of it all.

#2 – We are a super-sized nation who thinks bigger is better, especially when it comes to food, and we do love our junk food. Who profits from this?  Doctors and hospitals who have a vested interested in keeping their clientele ‘growing.’  There is also opportunity in oversized homes, furniture and plus sized clothing.  Don’t forget your giant SUV to haul around those big kids as well.

#3 – The rich are getting richer. We know from recent debates over the tax codes that the top 5% of our population have done exceptionally well.  This is looking more like times past as in the late 1800-1920 when we had a real ‘Gilded Age.’  The opportunity – duh, selling to the rich.  They have the money – go where the money is for both goods and services.  The will pay to be catered to.

#4 – Our weather is getting strange whether we belive in global warming or not. What to do?  First thing is watch where you live.  Living in coastal flood plains might be dicier in the future – same for the deserts when we are running low on water due to lower rainfall.  The opportunity – go green.  Will it work, probably not, but what a great marketing opportunity to sell to people who are not willing to really do something about it.

#5 – Why Can’t We All Get Along? Our last decade of large scale war in the Middle East should tell us that we have some major differences that haven’t changed for a couple of thousand years, why should we think they would change now?  How to make hay while the sun shines here – bet on defense and all things that need to be replaced after war fighting for years in the desert.  There’s likely to be more wars or small skirmishes in the future.  The stock market goes down each time, but then quickly goes up.  Learn to time the market, and you can coin money just like a hedge fund manager does.

As I finish this post, the word has come in today that unemployment figures rose this month, so a hope for good news has been thrown off track.  This is a great time to figure out what the future holds in an ever changing world.  Perhaps these looks at the trends will help find profitable niches to burrow into.  I for one am looking at helping to filter all of the news for my clients, and the good news is that I can do that in my oversized recliner in front of a giant fireplace.  Got to hit all the buttons while you can.