Lessons from 2012 for Business & Politics

Posted on December 20, 2012 by Lyn Bunch

The 2012 election drives home some basic new realities about how we communicate and conduct our business and our daily lives. The advent of the digital and social world has changed us forever. In politics as in business we see those who are on the leading edge, and the stragglers. Many of my clients, and certainly my future clients, have come to this understanding late.

Here are a few thoughts on how this worked out for the latest election cycle. Everything we saw as business and communications work nearly exactly the same in business as politics. One side triumphed over the other, and the reasons were more for business practices in the conduct of the marketing for the election, than in purely political leanings. Just a few thoughts…

Nate Silver and the Pundits The biggest winner of the 2012 election cycle was 538 - by Nate Silver. The success of Nate with his ‘system’ that followed individual polls, weighted the results, and then posits results by election area, became a new standard for tracking forecasts. The single poll as a key talking point will recede as conglomerated results become the new norm. This will also impact the role of the pundit who is basing their forecasts on feelings and not empirical data. Pundits were especially routed in this election cycle when their results did not match the data on the ground, and the final results. They are now relegated to mere ‘talking heads’ and all of their wishing on hoping are just that. Show me the data is what we now expect.

The Role of Social Media The biggest change in this campaign from 2008 to 2012 was the role of social media. 2008 was the digital campaign yea . 2012 became the social campaign, all of the benefits of the digital conduit for communications, along with tailored messaging, and listening, with their targeted audiences. Obama’s team built a large social-digital staff that literally drove the campaign. Nothing did more for the Obama campaign, and this will set the standard for all future campaigns. Little time here for the details, and I will go into more detail in future posts, but for now, we must see that a return to more traditional messaging will not work in future campaigns. The die is cast.

The Power of Print Media Print media still lives, and will still have a key role in future campaigns, just as they do for day to day business, but it will play a lesser role in the future. The power of the press, and especially of the official endorsements no longer drives the electorate. Day by day, their hold on the public is loosened. The results of who endorsed each of the candidates had a low correlation to the final outcome. We now want newspapers to tell us what is going on, but not who to vote for…we’ll get that from our friends on social media or general social contacts, if we need those at all to make up our minds.

The major dollars spent at the end of the campaign by the Romney campaign in print and television did very little to move the needle. By the time they ran, minds had already been made up. Words and print images are simply not as powerful and recent and visual images on the web or on television.

The Party Vs. The Campaign In this election cycle we were treated again to the real power of incumbency. Though many thought Obama carried a lot of negative baggage, and that incumbency in a poor economic climate would act as a drag, it did not turn out that way. As the incumbent, he was able to rebuild his election team from 2008, and take advantage of all of their previous experiences to come up with an even stronger campaign organization.

Romney was perceived to have been a great organizer, but it didn’t work out that way in this campaign. With a long primary, his team was late coming up to speed, and messaging and marketing continually ran behind. They also gave up the advantage when the Obama campaign was able to define them before they could build their own image.

Campaign Timing In past campaigns both sides usually started at roughly the same time, the incumbent having an advantage. In the current election cycle, the challengers were exceptionally late due to a long and contentious primary campaign. The party used to play a larger role in the overall campaign, but in recent campaigns it is the candidate who basically runs the entire show. Funding still comes from the party, but direct campaign funds and the direction of the campaign really are driven by the candidate.

I first saw this with Richard Nixon, who had the California campaign staff taking the lead and driving the campaign. This worked for most campaigns from Carter, the Bushes and Bill Clinton, but in this last cycle we saw the Chicago group take out the Boston group who struggled to mount the right campaign. They went to battle ill prepared for what was ahead, and the experienced crew out managed them. Future campaigns should take heed from this. Next time there will be no incumbent, but the team with the best plan, crew, message, and funding sources will likely win – all other politics aside. The same goes in business. Thinking you have the best ‘product’ will not trump the best marketing campaign, especially in a short ‘campaign’ with a finite deadline on election day.

Digital Donations The Romney strategy was based on large donations and the use of PACs to drive their message, and they did exceptionally well in this area, both in the primary and election campaigns. The money was flowing, but the results did not match the massive amounts spent, much of it too late to change minds already set by the other side.

The very large PAC infusion of money, much of it from just a small group of very wealthy donors did not accomplish the goal of total domination. In the end, the other guys had some strong PACs as well, but even more they discovered the power of small digital donations via text or emails. The power of small donations by the many, repeated several times by strong messaging did the trick. The key fact is that the masses that donated also took the time to vote in large numbers. The ‘engaged’ donor became the very engaged voter. For me that was the big win that I did not see coming, especially the size of total donations via this methodology.

Audiences and Precise Targeting In the world of direct mail the Republicans set the standard, and their lists were gold to the party. Election cycle after election cycle they yielded fantastic results. I’m sure they performed well this cycle as well, however, the Obama team who switched the ball game to heavy digital marketing outperformed them. Appeals went out on a nearly daily cycle; immediacy trumped the heavy mail package.

What we found out later is, that in this new 2012 cycle, the digital team advanced the art and science well beyond their initial efforts in the past cycle. Offers were tested, run, revamped – all within the span of a few hours, something impossible in direct mail. The single most interesting fact that I found out later were that nearly all of the appeals tested worked…they all worked. Message may be the key, but in this case it was more likely that methodology triumphed. For business, resisting digital and social marketing is at your peril. They must be a part of your mix in the future if you want to win the business in your daily marketing cycles.

Generations & Ethnicity…and Single Women Perhaps nothing explains the results of the 2012 election than the results shown by generations and ethnicity. They certainly skewed in both directions. But the bigger question is what this means to our electoral and business future. Targeted messaging is critical to identifying and supplying messaging to each audience. The days of mass marketing producing and mass result in the general marketplace are fast fading.

In future any marketer must target and message for their audiences, each with their own concerns and issues. Not only is the messaging variable, so is the media. Fewer of us subscribe to a daily paper. Confession here, as an old direct marketer and newspaper advertising executive, I used to subscribe to all the local papers on a daily basis. Now I have just one paper on Sunday, and the other for 4 days a week. All the rest of my news comes from the Internet via computer, iPad and iPhone. I also consume at least 3 times more total information as a result. For me, less is truly better.

For many, the iPhone, and other fully featured phones are now their prime communication vehicle and news source. Any business, or candidate, who does not take this into account, will not survive the next election cycle if they need that audience to win. As we saw the older audience does not use these tools as much now, but that audience is literally dying out. Not good ways to run a campaign in the future, if you want to have a future.

Single women also went heavily for Obama, married women more Romney. Messaging alone wouldn’t change the results here. It becomes a platform issue of what each party stands for. Is a party platform a key component of the message and do they need to be in synch. Much was made of the distinction in this case and through the Republicans courted single women, their overall message that was ‘heard’ was negative. Now we need to heed and message to gender, age, marital status, ethnicity and generational location as key factor in future campaigns. This is a very tough challenge for any marketer in business or politics and will determine the results of most future elections here.

Unforeseen Events Unforeseen events, like ‘Sandy’ will not be unforeseen in the future. What? I expect that future elections will forecast for every possible event and preparations will be at hand. Kind of like packing for a trip to Hawaii, but bring your snow skis anyway. With the outcome resting on any unforeseen event, they simply have to be built into our future radar. There is not time to regroup and react – bring the kitchen sink with you, we may need it will be the new motto.

Closing thoughts… Future elections, and future business will never be the same. Our digital and social tools have changed everything. I also expect this trend to continue as newer processes replace the old. Keepup, use the tools, or lose it all. No looking back now.

A Tale of Two Texans

Posted on February 8, 2012 by Lyn Bunch

All is right with Texas, and all is thusly right with the World. As a former Texan, circa 1980-1983 I am a living testament to the uniqueness of Texas, actually really it’s the Texans who are so ‘unique.’ I now enjoy having Son#1 living in Austin, the unique heart of Texas, with his native Texan wife and native Texan daughter. I loved living in Texas, back then, and they love Texas of the 21^st Century. The last few months have been trying times for Texans as they cheered and mourned the fates of two favorite sons – Rick Perry and Lance Armstrong. Now there is resolution for both.

Rick Perry is back in Texas, some are happy, and some are sad. Texans love to cheer on favorite sons, but Rick didn’t come home with a victory, and Texans hate to lose. Texas papers are reporting the polls are showing that Perry’s favorability ratings have fallen in the state. They interpret this to mean that many Texans are not happy to have Rick back in the state after his run for the Presidency. His poor showing on the stump reflects poorly on them they think. Ouch!

Lance Armstrong is back in Texas, in fact he never left. Not only is Lance a great cyclist, perhaps the greatest of all times based on his Tour de France record, but he is a great businessman. Lance built an entertainment empire out of Austin, one that would be the envy of any rock impresario. It helped to build Austin into a center of the earth for entertainment of all ilks with the SXSW each spring. I’ve never been, but my son is there every year, and now each year he is a contributor in the digital field

Texas in a unique place with its own culture, actually cultures, since there is no single culture to embrace all Texans, except for Pride, and in Texas that is spelled with a capital ‘P’. They love to win, and love it when they get to bring home the glory. In the case of Perry and Armstrong, both favorite sons with unique stories, Texans regaled in their successes, and held fast to them when both got into ‘trouble.’

The Texas miracle is built on two factors – lots of cash, and a tight network of ‘good old boys.’ It was many of these good old boys who bank rolled the Perry run for President. Texans don’t like to lose, that is in every area including both money and face. Rick came up ‘short’ in both areas.

The money was bad enough for the donors; they can make it back, but losing ‘face’ with Rick’s poor performance in the debates and on the stump. Not only did Rick come back to Texas diminished from his performance, he came back to a deflated Texas, where many are now questioning the ‘Texas Miracle’ he was touting on the stump. That was embarrassing to all Texans, and Rick may find it hard to mount any future campaigns. His network is still strong, and full of cash, but they are likely looking to the future with other names in mind.

One more opportunity for Lance came this week with the Susan B. Komen flap over cutting off funds to Planned Parenthood. Stepping in to help offset the cut in funds were Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York and Lance Armstrong’s Livestrong Fund who matched funds lost from the Komen actions. Nothing like a lot of great publicity announced almost simultaneously with the announcement that there would be no further legal actions planned against Lance for the doping/steroid allegations. Wow, what more can a man do to get his reputation back.

Texas, like California, has a very unique culture. They love their favorite sons, but sometimes when those sons go astray there is a price to pay. For both Rick Perry and Lance Armstrong, going ‘astray’ has had consequences on their reputation. The press has been all over the both of them. It appears that Lance has weathered the storm, and is back on top in Texas. His reputation is being restored, or at least it has been expunged from the official records. He will recover.

Rick Perry embarrassed Texans with his poor performance, his reputation is now down. It remains to be seen if it will recover. Time will tell, time will tell. For Lance, all is good, and all is forgiven. Perhaps Lance should consider a run for the Governor for the next term. I know a few Texans who would vote for him now.

To the Twitter Barricades, Men!

Posted on April 11, 2011 by Lyn Bunch

Back in March I posted on the Egyptian revolution – “The Facebook Revolution” and how digital tools and social communications helped to power the people’s revolution there, as well as in Yemen and then Libya. My quick research lead me to Evgeny Morzov and his book “The Net Delusion.” In it, Morozov postulated that the social media tools of Facebook and Twitter, and all of the other digital tools were helping to provide channels of communication that were hard for established channels to completely cutoff. However, the down side was that these tools could also be used by the ‘other’ side to listen, and to counter these social attacks on the establishment.

In Egypt we saw the results of both sides of the confrontation, and it still appears that the revolution did accomplish most of its goals in the initial phases, including the resignation of Mubarak. This left the Egyptian military in control, and it now appears that they are also using many of these same tools to help control the current situation and to help set the direction of the public discourse on how Egypt will be shaped in the immediate future.

Flash forward, and revolts have come in Syria, Bahrain and Libya. The playing field appears to have been leveled with all sides now using these very same tools. In the current edition of Newsweek author Niall Ferguson, eminent historian has spoken on the issue as only can in an elegant style. In “The Mash of Civilizations” he has also recognized that “Social networks might promote democracy, but they also empower the enemies of freedom.” Well said, Niall.

Where Niall hit a home run was the example he gave about the “Mobile Detachment” of the “al-Ansar al’Mujahideen Forum” creating a special data package for cell phones. Users can download a host of services including encryptian software, pictures and 3G video clips including one title called “A Martyr Eulogizing Another Martyr.” There is also an electronic magazine “Resistance” published by the Afghan branch of the Taliban. Digital tools are very democratic, and now well used by all sides. It was noted that these could all be downloaded in MS Word and Adobe formats.

While Wael Ghonim, of Google fame, who help to use Twitter to fan the Egyptian revolution, Ferguson highlights his opposite, Fauod X, the head of IT for Hesbola in Lebanon from the “The Age of the Unthinkable,” by Joshua Ramo – as being flooded with resumes from Islamist geeks wanting to ‘serve a sacred cause.’ As Ferguson noted these peoeple are really creating – ‘killer apps’, for sure.

So now we know that all of our digital and social tools are being used for both good and evil. If there is anyone out there who has not adopted these tools for their business – well, shame on you. You’re going to be caught in the crossfire, and your only defense is a good offense. Time to man the Twitter barricades before we are over run!

To Become the Change We Are Looking For

Posted on March 29, 2011 by Lyn Bunch

I have to admit I have a love hate relationship with David Brooks from the New York Times. I don’t think we have much common ground, and I either love what he has to say on a given day, or I hate it. Today David and I are simpatico. His article “Tools for Thinking” caught my attention and lead me to an organization I will follow in the future – Edge.org.

David, I take the liberty of using only his first name since I also take the liberty of crumbling up and tossing his editorials that I disagree with. David highlights the recent Edge symposium and over 164 contributions were made by leading thinkers, both high and low, about how to handle the posited question – “What Scientific Concept Would Improve Everybody’s Cognitive Toolkit.” I would have made my own contribution, but, alas, I was not invited on the frontend of this discussion. I encourage you all the see the list at Edge.org.

What sparked my attention to this post and this event. It is the same thing that is driving 90% of my consulting work today. After 20 years of leading start-ups and turnarounds my practice has been shaped by this subject matter – essentially, “…what the h*ll should I do next.” These are people looking for ‘tools for thinking’ as well as some critical insights on where the business economy is heading.

The dialog, as presented by David, covers a very broad range, as was its’ goal. I zeroed in on how to understand the change to a digital world – an emergent system, as he describes it. Since our culture is an emergent system we are adapting to how it is being described by the thought leaders who are driving digital tools and social media which are driving more than 80% of the overall change we are experiencing today…and this is what scares the h*ll out of my clients.

For my clients, my job has become to be their guide to this understanding of this change and what it means to them and to their busineses – and thus the ‘Analog Sherpa’ was born. I’ve lead change and turnaround for years, but now the change is from the macro environment and we are all looking for tools to better understand what is happening and where it is going. To get ‘there’ I now see that we have to ‘ become the tools we are looking for.’ Then we’ll understand what our future really looks like.

Lessons in Reputation Managment

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Lyn Bunch

In my last post ‘Runaway Journalist Attacks Again’ I focused on the story of LTG William B. Caldwell, an old acquaintance of mine who had been charged in a The Rolling Stone article of using ‘psyops’ on visiting U.S. dignitaries in order to secure more resources for his assigned mission in Afghanistan – training Afghan forces to take over their own security. Knowing something of the man I was taken back by the very strong accusations. I was also alarmed by the speed of the vast condemnation in worldwide media – calling it ‘a wildfire’ doesn’t do it justice.

My plan was to immediately do some quick research on ‘reputation management’ that I could use to enlighten everyone with. I felt strongly that he had been maligned and needed some digital help to improve his ‘brand.’ Two things happened – I started the research, and the ‘noise’ began to quickly subside. Good news on both fronts.

In my work on reputation management, something I had worked with clients before on, never so publicly however. What I found first was that my Google search on the subject immediately returned nearly 1 million hits – wow, where had I been. Two years ago it was a fraction of that. Was there more information – no, just more bodies offering to help. It comes from the SEO arena with its unique approaches, to the PR side of pushing out a better message. I was truly blown away since this is something I don’t focus on heavily for defensive reasons, mainly just building an identity out for ‘newbies’ breaking into the arena.

I guess that the shear size of the ‘reputation management’ services industry points to the fact that this is really a big deal, and a lucrative one. With our reputations now on the line 24/7 there are lots of opportunities for them to get tarnished, or even trashed. Glad we didn’t need it for General Caldwell at this time.

What went well, and why did things subside. After the initial flare up, cooler heads started to look at the situation and see that it was really more about the journalist and a single disgruntled officer, the ‘psy-ops’ trained junior officer who had, perhaps made more of the issue. It appears that this had already been in process and that General Caldwell had legal counsel who had approved his actions – really PR and not brain washing. Some key journalists also came to his aid with some positive articles you will find in the sidebar to your right.

The other thing that pushed this out or the fire and into the background were larger challenges in the arena including that of the bombing of nine Afghan boys while gathering firewood. This brought new challenges to General Petraeus, Caldwell’s superior officer. As I was taught at Infantry Officer Basic School – there is nothing like a good diversion to help you advance against the enemy. This time that has worked for General Caldwell, but it may not help him earn his 4^th star. Time will tell if the full reputation will be restored to this honorable man.

The Social Media Revolution is for Real

Posted on January 30, 2011 by Lyn Bunch

Crowds in Cairo, Egypt, January 30, 2011

Quick, my iPhone, I need to Tweet this!

Recently I highlighted the retro-digital movement with a fun poke at the Newton, the precursor to the hand held movement. Now the Middle East is erupting with revolt in Tunisia

, Yemen and Egypt. George W. Bush projected the hope that the war in Iraq would be about new regimes, and I guess that is likely to happen based on the news of the day. I’m not taking sides in this issue – so statesman like of me, but rather I’d just like to comment on the tools that are driving this forward in such a lightning fast manner.

This is our first Twitter and Facebook revolutions. Wow and these technologies weren’t up and running when we decided to invade Iraq after 9/11 and Afghanistan. Twitter is now coming up to it’s 5^th anniversary, and Facebook, is just now starting out to conquer the world, or at least the part that Google doesn’t control.

Imagine, our first Social Media Revolution. I can’t wait until the T-shirts are out. This almost happened a couple of years ago in Iran, but the regime there caught on and was able to head it off before they lost control. The outcome in Egypt is very fluid and no one knows how it will end. What we do know is that cutting off the Internet connections to Egyptians scored a major rebuke from President Obama – just not the right thing to do. I’d be pissed as well if someone tried to cut off my lifeline.

When I talk with my clients about “disruptive technology” it is in a whole other context. Many, especially my clients who are closer to my age with lots of grey hair, don’t fully comprehend the changes, but are trying to. This should go a long way as a proof source for where the future is going.

There is a host of information from media on this situation – the best article for now I found from Scott Shane in yesterdays New York Times – “Spotlight Again Falls on Web Tools and Change.” I’ll highlight more as it comes on line in my suggested reading side bars. Tomorrow the thoughts from Evgeny Morozov who highlights some of the downsides of the technology- mainly that it is being used to track dissidents. Disruption cuts both ways I guess. Carrier pigeons or Newtons, anyone?

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