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Print Media is Running Out of Time

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No More Time!

No More Time!

The transition from our legacy analog world of ink and paper is accelerating.  Major changes in newspapers over the last several years with revenues significantly down to levels not seen in 10 years.  Growth ceased, and status quo is hard to digest to those in the industry that used to grow by showing up.  Population growth meant circulation growth.  Those trends no longer exist, and print media outlets are starting to drop like flies. First it was newspapers, now the trend has extended to magazines and direct marketing publications.

In a recent Daily Beast article by Daniel Gross “Why Time Warner Felt It Had to Spin Off Magazine Unit Time Inc we see why this is happening.  Its all about stock prices.  This trend is now making its way felt through the entire communications field from newspapers, magazines and direct marketing publications.

 Newspapers were the first to feel the pinch of declining revenue.   The grind of producing, printing and delivering daily papers IS not easy, and its expensive to do it every day, especially on those days when the paper is not full of ads.  Recent changes in newspaper ownership around the county brought some promise of hope when heavy hitters like Warren Buffett bought in and gave some hope to other owners that were still viable.  But Warren likes to buy and hold, and he likes to buy things he knows a lot about – and HE still reads his paper daily.  Not everyone agrees with Warren, nor do they all have his deeps pockets.

Even with his very deep pockets Rupert Murdoch owns bunches of papers in the US and in Australia and England, but Rupert also owns lots of digital media in those markets as well.  He also sees the enduring value in the print, but he was one of the first to see that revenues were lagging in print, and those lagging revenues reflected poorly on the ability for the overall stock value of these publicly traded companies to grow.  He has lead the move to split his holdings into discrete segments – digital on one side and print media on the other.  Future dollars for investment and growth are attached to the digital side, and print you’re now on your own now.

Recently Time Warner felt the urge to ‘unmerge’ its holding and to spin off its magazine unit, including Time, Fortune, Money and Sports Illustrated and make them a new stand alone organization and take them public as their own group.   The magazines are still profitable, but they cannot keep with the market and are thus a drag on corporate earnings.

Harte-Hanks, Inc. originally started off as group of small Texas newspapers, but chose a different way to grow outside of newspapers and moved into direct marketing, and over 20 years sold off all other holdings, including all of their newspapers and became a powerhouse in shoppers publications covering millions of households in California and Florida.  A still thriving industry for small communities covering a market just below that of the newspaper they provided cost effective targeted advertising and in the process stole market share from larger local newspapers.  Those golden days are now over.  Having written down all of their goodwill equity in the declining value of The Pennysaver, they were able to unload them quickly.

In December the Florida operations were sold back to their founder Dick Mandt, a former boss of mine, and his team of highly effective industry managers.  Were they losing money -no, but they had to go.  Sources tell me that the same thing is likely in California where the original Pennysaver circulates.  Staff cuts are being made, offices are closing, and they appear to be on the same trajectory as Florida.  Can they still make money – yes.  But they can’t grow in the manner that a public company needs them to.

Like Time, Inc., Harte-Hanks, is a publicly traded company and must show growth.  The huge revenue base of the Pennysaver could not keep up the growth curve for Harte-Hanks and stock prices lagged. Decision time came, and decisions were made.  Heads rolled, and the new management staff has a mandate for growth, and a tight timeline.  This is the new story for print and direct marketing, especially for those mailed publications.  If you are on the big march and you fail to keep up – we’ll leave you a canteen of water, and a couple of biscuits, but your on your own.  Tough love, I think we call it!  Time is not always on our side.

The Ghosts of Christmas Past – Gone but Not Forgotten

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I love this time of the year, the Christmas lights, the food and the fire in the fireplace.  Holidays in Southern California have their own timeline, and this year for extra cheer we have the deluge of the century bearing down on us.  Time to make merry and stay dry, and time for another log on the fire.

Another reason I look forward at this time are all of the lists of things past and things future.  I enjoy the prognostications of what is to come, and what we saw.  In this climate both real and economic it is exciting to see some glimmer of good news on the horizon.  Good news, even potential good news brings positive actions, and that is what we need.  The forecasts are looking up and I rejoice at their prospect, but then I am chastened by forecasts past that have not brought the results foretold.  Pardon the language, but I’m also watching ‘A Christmas Carol’ to get myself in the mood.

OK, this year is the resolution to save all of the forecasts in a folder and then review them at the end of the year.  Just like Ebeneezer at his counting table I will keep tally of who was naughty and who was nice, well in his honor, just who was naughty.

To get myself in the mood I read today’s list “You’re Out: 20 Things That Became Obsolete this Decade.” Now I feel old, and then contemplate just how fast things come and go.  It seems like just yesterday for many of these items.  Here’s a quick recap of those things that will not be missed – OK, some of them will be missed:

  1. VCRs & VHS Taps
  2. Travel Agents
  3. The Separation between Work and Personal Life
  4. Forgetting
  5. Bookstores
  6. Watches
  7. Land Line Phones
  8. Maps
  9. Phone Calls
  10. Classifieds in Newspapers
  11. Dial-up Internet
  12. Encyclopedias
  13. CD’s
  14. Phone Sex via 1-900 numbers
  15. Film and film cameras
  16. Yellow Pages and Address Books
  17. Catalogs
  18. Fax Machines
  19. Wires
  20. Hand Written Letters

Now I really feel old.  Time for some liquid Christmas ‘cheer’ to deaden the pain, and to help me forget.  I worked in many of these fields, and there is no going back.    Bah, Humbug!

How Low Can They Go? Newspaper Revenues Down Again

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There were big changes taking place in the advertising field in 2010.  For the first time marketers spent more in online advertising than newspapers.  I have a career than spans both industries and I really feel for my print bretheran.  Total newspaper spending, including both print and online declined to $25.7 billion, a decline of 6.6%.  On the other side of the ledger the US online spend rose 13.9% to $25.8 billion by Dec 31st.  Ouch and ouch.

The big hope for newspapers is that they could make up some of the declines from print in their online and direct marketing offerings.  It hasn’t worked – yet!  Print revenue alone fell to $22.8 billion.  The blended offerings of newspapers are still relevant to their advertisers and readers, but they no longer command the dominant position they rode to glory for so many years.  Yeah, and I was one of those riders for a number of those years.

Why is this not going better for the newspapers?  Print revenues and ads are declining faster than forecasted, and online operations and revenues are running behind and are being trounced by stand-alone online operations, and of course by newer players like Groupon.

With newspaper spending having declined by nearly half since 2006 there seems to be no easy answer.  They still own the local client base – no one refuses to talk to any representative of the local paper.  There is too much at stake, and not a little fear thrown in for good measure.  Newspapers must continue to work that angle to stay relevant in their markets.  There is still a belief in high readership drawing good advertising results.  I have found that those papers that stay top of mind to their readers do a better job for their advertisers as well.  When I increased my ‘news hole’ advertising dollars followed shortly there after.  Try it – it works!

Finding the Off Switch

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The Woz

I admit it…I am a propeller-head and early adopting geek.  I had my first computer in 1980 – an Apple II running VisiCalc and printing on a thermal printer.  The funny thing it was the only computer in my division of Harte-Hanks in Dallas.  Things certainly have changed, but I haven’t – I’m still a nerd at heart.

That is why I loved the article in today’s LA Times about Steve Wozniak – ‘The Woz’ and a personal hero of mine.  I had the good fortune to know Del Yocam who came in at the very beginning to set up the manufacturing for Apple, so following the ‘originals’ is still a passion of mine.

Woz in the article speaks to the issue that we have all become addicted to our computers and gadgets, and it is nearly impossible to turn them off.  I know, there is no off switch in my house, my car or in my life.  Technology and being connected has changed how we live, and it’s not all for the better.  We need to find the off switch, or at least the mute button.  I’m writing this post while I’m helping to build a crib for my new 2 week old granddaughter.  The switch in my head has finally gone off, and this post will end in 60 seconds.

My next post will focus on how you can find your off switch, and why you should – for the sake of your ‘life.’

Mega-Trends for Our Near Future?

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A recent post on BNET/CBS Interactive by Geoffrey James in their Sales Machine blog caught my attention.  At my first reading it brought a laugh, but then I wondered if  he was really serious, and if there was real meaning there – and there was!  The article was entitled “Five Mega-Trends That Will Shape the Next Decade.” The trends were:

#1 – The Great Stupification

#2 – The Porking of America

#3 – The Gilded Age

#4 – Totally Weird Weather

#5 – Endless Religious War

Got your attention? It got mine, and when I re-read the sections I found the insights, some of which I am integrating into my messages to my clients.  Some might find the headers and the approach a little jarring, but there is real truth down below.  Here are a few of the things I gleaned.

#1 – We have so much information available to us today it is hard to digest. Some are facts and much is just opinion, but how to really know the difference, and how many care?  There are too many voices, and too many choices.  We need filters and trusted advisors to help us make sense of it all.

#2 – We are a super-sized nation who thinks bigger is better, especially when it comes to food, and we do love our junk food. Who profits from this?  Doctors and hospitals who have a vested interested in keeping their clientele ‘growing.’  There is also opportunity in oversized homes, furniture and plus sized clothing.  Don’t forget your giant SUV to haul around those big kids as well.

#3 – The rich are getting richer. We know from recent debates over the tax codes that the top 5% of our population have done exceptionally well.  This is looking more like times past as in the late 1800-1920 when we had a real ‘Gilded Age.’  The opportunity – duh, selling to the rich.  They have the money – go where the money is for both goods and services.  The will pay to be catered to.

#4 – Our weather is getting strange whether we belive in global warming or not. What to do?  First thing is watch where you live.  Living in coastal flood plains might be dicier in the future – same for the deserts when we are running low on water due to lower rainfall.  The opportunity – go green.  Will it work, probably not, but what a great marketing opportunity to sell to people who are not willing to really do something about it.

#5 – Why Can’t We All Get Along? Our last decade of large scale war in the Middle East should tell us that we have some major differences that haven’t changed for a couple of thousand years, why should we think they would change now?  How to make hay while the sun shines here – bet on defense and all things that need to be replaced after war fighting for years in the desert.  There’s likely to be more wars or small skirmishes in the future.  The stock market goes down each time, but then quickly goes up.  Learn to time the market, and you can coin money just like a hedge fund manager does.

As I finish this post, the word has come in today that unemployment figures rose this month, so a hope for good news has been thrown off track.  This is a great time to figure out what the future holds in an ever changing world.  Perhaps these looks at the trends will help find profitable niches to burrow into.  I for one am looking at helping to filter all of the news for my clients, and the good news is that I can do that in my oversized recliner in front of a giant fireplace.  Got to hit all the buttons while you can.

Life in the Fishbowl

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Well everything hit the fan yesterday, and we have had wall-to-wall coverage of the Wikileaks in the diplomatic world.  If you love titillation and scandal, things just couldn’t get any better.  If you believe that these things should not have been leaked, then life is now hell.  Better get used to it since there is more to come, and I’ll get to that later.

Many of my clients are senior executives who both love the limelight, but who also want to control their image, and that of their organization.  That has gotten to be hard in this highly 24/7 social world.  Anyone can be spotted and tagged in a photo or video and it is hard to do anything about it.  For the photo shy this is frustrating.  What can you do – best advice today – get over it.  You now live in a fishbowl world and transparency is full time and real time.  Be it your image, or any data about you – it is being shared, and in many cases sold to someone who wants to market to you.  We now live in a world wide small village where we all know everything about everyone else.

There is outrage at the leaks, and talk of espionage charges against the leakers, one of whom an Army enlisted man is awaiting trial.  Things will get sorted out in the future, but one thing is not and will not change in the future.  Once the story is out, the damage is done…the bell has been rung and cannot be un-rung!  If this is to be our future we must adapt our behavior on the front end to avoid consequences on the other end.

The change in behavior needed?  Think transparency and reputation management.  If you start with the fact that you really do live in a fishbowl, you should adapt your behavior on the front end, cause the consequences WILL follow on the back end.  You should also be active in promoting your brand and all of the positive things it stands for on a routine basis.  That should help if any small hick-ups occur along the way.  A good offense helps to create a good defense in football parlance.

What happens next with the leaks?  In a new Forbes cover story Julian Assange has ‘leaked’ the fact that their next target is going to be a major bank.  Big business is now in his sites.  With all of the damage being played out in the news over the sad state of the foreclosure mess which is hurting some of the major banks now, I don’t think it will take much to cause a real stir, and perhaps a crisis there.  My retired banker father-in-law is so thankful not to be working in this environment.  He for one could not stand to live in the ‘fishbowl’ of today’s world.  Fish food anyone?

Not Dead Yet!

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In recent presentations I continue to get questions about the various forms of media and which should they be using. What they are really asking seems to be…”Is email dead?”  They also want to know the same about direct mail, newspapers, radio. It reminds of the scene in Monty Python’s The Holy Grail where they were collecting the dead from the streets at the height of the Black Death – “Bring Out Your Dead, and the retort was from one lying in the street – “Not Dead Yet!”

Not dead yet is my answer for all of the media people are continuing to use.  Everything is still alive and kicking and serves useful functions for reaching segments of the audience you want to reach.  One only has to look at the conduct of the advertising for the recent elections to see just how segmented the approach was by the various campaigns.  Living in California, I saw it all, and received it all, including some mobile for the very first time.

The key for making the right choices are the target segments you are trying to reach. That will lead you to the right media mix- that’s right the media mix. Change in media has been endemic over the last several years, and continues to change daily, is that it takes a mix to ensure hitting your targets.  The article in the sidebar and linked here – “Email Marketing: I am not dead yet” gives you some recent stats that show email marketing is alive, and in Deliver, the USPS publication contains a number of good hints and stats that show direct mail is also still viable.  I’ve worked in both arenas, as well in newspapers and out of home and I can attest that all are still useful – when used the right way, for the right audience, and in the right mix.  Kind of like making a cake – right ingredients, right temperature served to the right company will get you raves.  Change any of those variants will change the outcome.  It takes a lot of ingredients, all in different proportions to make a cake – and the same holds true for trying to reach your customers and potential customers.

My advice to my clients is to focus on your audience and segments and that will help you define the right media mix for now and for the future.  Newspapers may not be as profitable as they once were, but they are still viable as a part of your mix – “Not Dead Yet!”

Addressing Our Fear of Failure

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Atychiphobia is the ‘fear of failure.’ I read a piece in Advertising Age this morning that caught my attention because it dealt with our collective fear of failure.   In my professional capacity I deal with sales people all the time, and one of the key factors everyone is dealing with today is the current state of the economy.  Many are really ‘spooked’ – their fear of failure is palpable.  We live in an age that worships celebrity and success in all areas – sports, politics, celebrity and business. Yesterday, half of the teams in the NFL lost.  Tomorrow, only one winner will come out of each political campaign with a smile on their fact.

The Ad Age article is entitled “Not Only Is Failure an Option, It’s a Requirement.” Derek Walker hits a key point, one I was first introduced to when I was recruited to Harte-Hanks in 1979.  All new management hires went through a psychologist who interviewed for suitability to an aggressive management environment.  My psychologist marveled at my track record to that point, but had one key issue – my lack of failure to that point.  He gave me some advice in my new career – don’t be afraid of failure, embrace it, learn from it, and move on.  I thought he was crazy, but I smiled.  A few years later in the midst of another round of expansion and incredible change I found solice and inspiration in his advice, and I did embrace it.  It allowed my to go on the management tightrope and try things I would not have done, and in the recession of 1982, I needed it.

Derek Walker in his article focuses on the advertising field, and the need to try new things and push the envelope as keys ways to do the best work for clients.  He is right, but you have to bring the customer allow for the ride, willingly.  The mistake is to get too far out ahead of them.  I’ve made that mistake and paid the price, but I also learned from it and that has helped to propel me forward.

Success is great, it brings us financial rewards.  Failure can be more rewarding for the enlightenment it brings.  In the end, you can take both to the bank with you.  You can feast on success today, but failure will feed you in the future.  The psychologist was right!

You Get What You Need

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“You Can’t Always Get What You Want” is the title of a song I was reintroduced to by Glee last year.  It became my ‘new again’ anthem for making things happen when circumstances aren’t in your favor.  In today’s economy and jobs environment there is more than enough pain to go around for everyone.  The counter line to the title is…”but you’ll always get what you need!”  That is what we got last night when the first miner was lifted out and was watched by an estimated 1 billion via television.

I do not watch car chases on tv – my last was when OJ was fleeing in the white Bronco.  I’ve sworn them off since then.  However, I’m always on alert for a great teachable moment, and we got one with the success of the mine disaster.  This time we got a happy ending, and there is enough rejoicing to go around for everyone.  But back to that teachable moment – we learned again, that cool heads and great planning can work, if everyone pulls together.

In this event we saw the planning of the Chilean engineers and government who plowed ahead.  We saw worldwide help and assistance from the U.S, and other governments who played a hand in the success, and when success was at hand they backed away and graciously allowed the Chileans to celebrate alone on the stage.

We needed some good news, and we got it, and some great lessons as well.  Plan, execute, and repeat.  Stay at it, persevere.  When success happens let the right people who really made it happen get the limelight.  We need that now, and we got what we needed!

Animal House Meets The Tribune Co. – Party On!

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I’m a newspaper guy at heart.  I found the rush of the daily news cycle, printing and delivering to the doorstep by 5AM to be a real rush.  However, I got another rush this morning when I read the article in the NYT – “At Flagging Tribune, Tales of a Bankrupt Culture.” Wow, I thought they were just playing out a bad hand that poor timing and a weak economy had dealt them, but these guys are something else.

I have had strong relationships with the LA Times, both in competing with them when I was at The OC Register, managing their 31 weekly papers, and later as a business partner when The Times was my media partner in an outdoor advertising company servicing local governments.  I was never impressed with their ‘get up a go,” but they were professional and exuded class.

Now the picture is straight out of Animal House or Old School with Will Ferrell.  It sounds like a lot of fraternity pranks, rude and obnoxious humor and overt sexual misconduct.  I had no idea, and I’m in the industry.  We all knew that Sam Zell made a bad bet, and used employee funds in creating an ESOP to fund his purchase.  It was also bad timing, as were so many other purchases including McClatchy buying Knight-Ridder, and Freedom selling out to payoff family owners who watned to cash out.

No, the big crime is that they have a bunch of clowns in charge.  It’s not just the economy that has hurt them it’s their own inept actions, or inactions that have killed them.  The ultimate bad tag on them is that they are underperforming the industry.  Previous leadership under the Chandler family was very staid and proper, and usually late to the party for the most part.  The new group started the party when they walked in the door, but forgot about the business part.

It’s a sad day for the industry, but there is a great lesson underneath all of their ‘stuff.’  The lesson is that culture trumps all.  They had it at one time, and they lost it.  They will not succeed again until they build a new, functional and professional culture.  We have spoken in the past about Michael Eisner coming in as the new head of the company at the behest of the major debt holder.  I laughed a little about it then, warmed up after some thought, and am know ready to say – Michael, please come!

Michael rescued a declining Disney when they couldn’t get over Walt’s death and couldn’t make decisions.  Eisner turned heads with how fast he could make decisions and he built a new culture, and Disney prospered.  He needs to do the same thing again at the Tribune Co.   That would be worth the price of admission – even at today’s inflated prices at Disneyland.  Hey where can a guy cash in a bunch of old E-Tickets, I want to be there when the fireworks goes off and Sam Zell streaks down Main Street, Will Ferrell style, in all of his naked glory – Old School style.